Mathematical Modeling of Holy Water Usage Practices and the Associated Cholera Transmission for its Optimal Control in Ethiopia

Abstract

In this study, a mathematical model was developed to understand how holy water could influence cholera transmission. The model was carefully analyzed to ensure that its solutions are realistic and biologically meaningful. To better understand the disease's spread, we calculated the basic reproduction number (Ro) using the next-generation matrix method. This number is crucial in determining whether cholera will spread or be controlled. Our findings show that when the basic reproduction number (Ro ) is less than one, the disease-free state is stable, meaning cholera could eventually be eliminated or reduced. However, if the basic reproduction number (Ro ) is greater than one, the disease-free state becomes unstable, suggesting that cholera will continue to spread. Numerical simulations conducted in MATLAB demonstrated a significant reduction in cholera transmission following holy water treatment, indicating its potential as an effective tool for disease control. This reduction is not only due to the direct effects on water quality but also stems from the psychological and spiritual impact on the population. The belief in the purifying and healing power of holy water can lead to a reduction in mental stress, tension, and confusion, which are often linked to the fear and anxiety surrounding cholera outbreaks. This spiritual and psychological peace may contribute to better health behaviors, such as improved hygiene practices and adherence to treatment, further helping to control the disease. These results could guide public health strategies and offer new insights into cholera prevention in Ethiopia.