Will Africa be Devastated by Covid-19 as Many Predicted? Perspective and Prospective

Abstract

ince the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19 or SARS CoV-2 infection) has been declared as pandemic, several mathematicians and statisticians have developed different trajectory curves for Africa, with the assumption that the virus can have an exponential pattern of transmission. According to Economic Commission for Africa, 300k-3.3 million COVID-19 related deaths may occur in Africa (1). A large body of literature and international media have also predicted that Africa is going to be flooded, much higher than Europe and the United States of America (USA). For Ethiopia alone, some estimated 28-33 million with full mitigation and 70-107 million people without mitigation actions can get infected. When the author of this perspective sees such an easy to do, but hard to conceive figures, he likes to join the closed loop forum and express what his thought is.