Manifestos and Voting Behavior in Third-Wave Democracies: Evidence from Ghana
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Published:
Aug 30, 2022
Keywords:
Elections, Manifestos, Ethnicity, Rational Voting, Party Alignment
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Abstract
Custom to pluralistic societies in emergent democracies, political mythology holds that since Ghana's Fourth Republic's inception, electoral outcomes have been fundamentally determined by ethno-political identification and other social cleavages to political parties. However, despite the potential influence of party manifesto contents in determining electoral outcomes, very little is known about the value of party manifestos in shaping voting behavior in the history of elections in the Fourth Republic. This is unfortunate because such knowledge can inform both the academic study of electoral politics and voting behavior. This article, rooted in the classical work on economic voting at both the individual and aggregate levels, presents original results from interviews with voters who participated in all the three recently held elections under study. Through interviews with 11,600 respondents from 116 constituencies and across all 16 regions, the study finds that the voting pattern in recent elections is not consistent with the popular ethno-social dynamics of Ghana's electoral politics. The results imply that party identification remains a significant determinant of voting decisions; nonetheless, the manifesto contents of political parties have become pivotal in shaping voting behavior rather than voting patterns based on socio-psychological notions and political party alignments. It concludes that voter inducement (kind or cash) in election periods is less relevant in structuring voting behavior. Further, it concludes that unless a major realignment occurs, electorates prefer a party with policies that maximize their utilities or will lead to the most considerable average benefit, as there is no reason to vote for a policy with idiosyncratic benefits or values. Thus, parties' policy blueprints or manifesto contents have become strong mobilizers and key determining factors for voters. As such, political parties need to invest in developing concrete policy programs that resonate with the citizenry to spur successful electoral outcomes.
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George Ayuune Akeliwira, & Dr. Isaac Owusu-Mensah. (2022). Manifestos and Voting Behavior in Third-Wave Democracies: Evidence from Ghana. PanAfrican Journal of Governance and Development (PJGD), 3(2), 3-32. https://doi.org/10.46404/panjogov.v3i2.3938
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Research-based/ Original Articles
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
References
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Aldrich, J. H. (1993). Rational choice and turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 37(1): 246-278.
Alesina, A., & Rosenthal, H. (1995). Partisan politics, divided government, and the economy. Cambridge University Press.
Alvarez, R. M. (1998). Information and elections (First Edition). Michigan: Michigan University Press.
Anderson, C. J., Mendes, S. M., & Tverdova, Y. V. (2004). Endogenous economic voting: Evidence from the 1997 British election. Electoral Studies, 23(4): 683-708.
Austin, D. (1965). Politics in Ghana, 1946-1960. American Political Science Review, 59(4): 1007-1008. https://doi.org/10.2307/1953224
Ayee, J. R. (1997). The December 1996 general elections in Ghana. Electoral Studies, 16(3): 416-427
Ayee, J. R. (2011). Manifestos and elections in Ghana's fourth republic. South African Journal of International Affairs, 18(3): 367-384.
Ayee, J. R., (2002). The 2000 general elections and presidential run-off in Ghana: An overview. Democratization, 9(2): 148-174.
Bartle, J & Crewe, I. (2002). The impact of party leaders in Britain: Strong assumptions, weak evidence. Oxford University Press, 70-95. https://doi.org/10.1093/0199253137.003.0003.
Brouard, S., Grossman, E., Guinaudeau, I., Persico, S., & Froio, C. (2018). Do party manifestos matter in policymaking? Capacities, incentives and outcomes of electoral programs in France. Political Studies, 66(4): 903-921. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321717745433
Budge, I., Klingemann, H. D., Volkens, A., Bara, J., & Tanenbaum, E. (2001). Mapping policy preferences: Estimates for parties, electors, and governments, (1): 1945-1998. Oxford University Press.
Campbell A., Converse P., Miller, W., & Stokes D. (1960). The American voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Chazan, N. (1983). An anatomy of Ghanaian politics: Managing political recession 1969-1982 (First Edition). New York: Routledge.
Coate, S., & Conlin, M. (2004). A group rule-utilitarian approach to voter turnout: Theory and evidence. American Economic Review, 94(5): 1476-1504.
Dahl, R. A. (1971). Polyarchy: participation and opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Dalton, R. J. (2000). Citizen attitudes and political behavior. Comparative Political Studies, 33(6-7): 912-940. doi:10.1177/001041400003300609.
Dalton, R. J. (2016). Party identification and its implications. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.72
Dennis, J. (1970). Support for the institution of elections by the mass public. American Political Science Review, 64(3): 819-835.
Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
Dunn, J. (1975), Politics in Asunafo, in Austin and Luckham (Eds.), politicians and soldiers in Ghana, London: Frank Cass.
Eder, N., Jenny, M., & Müller, W. C. (2017). Manifesto functions: How party candidates view and use their party's central policy document. Electoral Studies, (45): 75-87.
Edlin, A., Gelman, A., & Kaplan, N. (2007). Voting as a rational choice: Why and how people vote to improve the well-being of others. Rationality and Society, 19(3): 293-314.
Erdmann, G. (2007a). Ethnicity, voter alignment and political party affiliation - an African case: Zambia. GIGA Working Paper, No. 45. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.978175
Erdmann, G. (2007b). The cleavage model, ethnicity and voter alignment in Africa: Conceptual and methodological problems revisited. GIGA Working Paper, No. 63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1068633
Evans, J. A. (2004). Voters and voting: An introduction. London: Sage Production Ltd.
Feddersen, T. J. (2004). Rational choice theory and the paradox of not voting. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(1): 99-112.
Franklin, M. N. (2010). Cleavage research: A critical appraisal. West European Politics, 33(3): 648-658. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402381003654650
Franzese, R. J. (2002). Electoral and partisan cycles in economic policies and outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science, 5(1): 369-421.
Frempong, A. K. D. (2012). Electoral politics in Ghana’s fourth republic in the context of post-cold war Africa, Accra: Yamens Press Ltd.
Gabel, M., & Hix, S. (2002). Defining the EU political space: An empirical study of the European election manifestos, 1979-1999. Comparative Political Studies, 35(8): 934–964
Geys, B. (2006). Explaining voter turnout: A review of aggregate-level research. Electoral Studies, 25(4): 637-663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.09.002
Goodin, R. E., & Roberts, K. W. (1975). The ethical voter. American Political Science Review, 69(3): 926-928.
Green, D.P., Palmquist, B. (1994). How stable is party identification? Political Behavior, (16): 437-466. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01498826
Gyimah-Boadi, E. (1994). Ghana's uncertain political opening. Journal of Democracy, 5(2): 75-86.
Gyimah-Boadi, E. (1997). Ghana's encouraging elections: The challenges ahead. Journal of Democracy, 8(2): 78-91.
Hansen, S., Palfrey, T. R., & Rosenthal, H. (1987). The downsian model of electoral participation: Formal theory and empirical analysis of the constituency size effect. Public Choice, 52(1): 15-33.
Heath, A. F., Fisher, S. D., Rosenblatt, G., Sanders, D., & Sobolewska, M. (2013). The political integration of ethnic minorities in Britain. Oxford University Press.
Iversen, T. (1994). Political leadership and representation in west European democracies: A test of three models of voting. American Journal of Political Science, 45-74.
Janda, K., Harmel, R., Edens, C., & Goff, P. (1995). Changes in party identity: Evidence from party manifestos. Party Politics, 1(2): 171-196.
Kelly, B. C. (2010). Sampling and recruitment issues in qualitative drugs research: Reflections on the study of club drug users in metro New York. Substance Use & Misuse, 45(5): 671-683.
Kerr, N., & Lührmann, A. (2017). Public trust in manipulated elections: The role of election administration and media freedom. Electoral Studies, (50): 50-67.
Kiewiet, D. R., & Rivers, D. (1984). A retrospective-on-retrospective voting. Political Behavior, 6(4): 369-393.
Lamare, J. R., & Budd, J. W. (2022). The relative importance of industrial relations ideas in politics: A quantitative analysis of political party manifestos across 54 countries. A Journal of Economy and Society, 61(1): 22-49.
Larcinese, V. (2009). Information acquisition, ideology and turnout: Theory and evidence from Britain. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 21(2): 237-276.
Ledyard, J. O. (1984). The pure theory of large two-candidate elections. Public Choice, 44(1): 7-41. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00124816.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Paldam, M. (2000). Economic voting: An introduction. Electoral Studies, 19(2-3): 113 -121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00042-6
Manin, B., Przeworski, A., & Stokes, S. C. (2012). Democracy, accountability, and representation. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139175104.
Matsusaka, J. G. (1995). Explaining voter turnout patterns: An information theory. Public Choice, (84): 91-117. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01047803
McDonald, M., Mendes, S., & Budge, I. (2004). What are elections for? Conferring the median mandate. British Journal of Political Science, 1(34): 1-26.
McGann, A. (2016). Voting choice and rational choice. Oxford University Press.
https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.79
Merrill, S., Grofman, B., & Brunell, T. L. (2008). Cycles in American national electoral politics, 1854-2006: Statistical evidence and an explanatory model. American Political Science Review, 102(1): 1-17.
Millard, F. (2009). Democratic elections in Poland, 1991-2007 (First Edition), London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203872727
Nielsen, H. J. (2002). Anm. af ole Borre: Issue voting. An introduction. Politica-Tidsskrift for Politisk Videnskab, 34(3): 333-336.
Palfrey, T. R., & Rosenthal, H. (1985). Voter participation and strategic uncertainty. American Political Science Review, 79(1): 62-78.
Posner, D. N. (2005). Institutions and ethnic politics in Africa. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808661
Przeworski, A., Shapiro, I., & Hacker-Cordon, C. (1999). A minimalist conception of democracy. Democracy's Value, 23-55.
Przeworski, A., Stokes, S. C. S., Stokes, S. C., & Manin, B. (Eds.). (1999). Democracy, accountability, and representation (2). Cambridge University Press.
Rabinowitz, G., & Macdonald, S. E. (1989). A directional theory of issue voting. American Political Science Review, 83(1): 93-121.
Reif, K., & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second‐order national elections–a conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8(1): 3-44.
Robinson, O. C. (2014). Sampling in interview-based qualitative research: A theoretical and practical guide. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 11(1): 25-41.
Rose, R., & Mossawir, H. (1967). Voting and elections: A functional analysis. Political Studies, 15(2): 173-201.
Roth, S. K. (1998). Disenfranchised by design: Voting systems and the election process. Information Design Journal, 9(1): 29-38.
Sobolewska, M. (2013). Party strategies and the descriptive representation of ethnic minorities: The 2010 British general election. West European Politics, 36(3): 615-633.
Sobolewska, M., Arzheimer, K., Evans, J., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2016). Race, ethnicity and elections: From recognizable patterns to generalized theories. Electoral Behavior, 220-239.
Trost, J. E. (1986). Statistically non-representative stratified sampling: A sampling technique for qualitative studies. Qualitative Sociology, 9(1): 54-57.
Tufte, E. R. (1978). Political control of the economy. Princeton University Press.
Van de Walle, N. (2003). Presidentialism and clientelism in Africa's emerging party systems. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 41(2): 297-32.
Van Gyampo, R. E., & Debrah, E. (2013). The youth and party manifestos in Ghanaian politics - the case of the 2012 general elections. Journal of African Elections, 12(2): 96-114.
Aldrich, J. H. (1993). Rational choice and turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 37(1): 246-278.
Alesina, A., & Rosenthal, H. (1995). Partisan politics, divided government, and the economy. Cambridge University Press.
Alvarez, R. M. (1998). Information and elections (First Edition). Michigan: Michigan University Press.
Anderson, C. J., Mendes, S. M., & Tverdova, Y. V. (2004). Endogenous economic voting: Evidence from the 1997 British election. Electoral Studies, 23(4): 683-708.
Austin, D. (1965). Politics in Ghana, 1946-1960. American Political Science Review, 59(4): 1007-1008. https://doi.org/10.2307/1953224
Ayee, J. R. (1997). The December 1996 general elections in Ghana. Electoral Studies, 16(3): 416-427
Ayee, J. R. (2011). Manifestos and elections in Ghana's fourth republic. South African Journal of International Affairs, 18(3): 367-384.
Ayee, J. R., (2002). The 2000 general elections and presidential run-off in Ghana: An overview. Democratization, 9(2): 148-174.
Bartle, J & Crewe, I. (2002). The impact of party leaders in Britain: Strong assumptions, weak evidence. Oxford University Press, 70-95. https://doi.org/10.1093/0199253137.003.0003.
Brouard, S., Grossman, E., Guinaudeau, I., Persico, S., & Froio, C. (2018). Do party manifestos matter in policymaking? Capacities, incentives and outcomes of electoral programs in France. Political Studies, 66(4): 903-921. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321717745433
Budge, I., Klingemann, H. D., Volkens, A., Bara, J., & Tanenbaum, E. (2001). Mapping policy preferences: Estimates for parties, electors, and governments, (1): 1945-1998. Oxford University Press.
Campbell A., Converse P., Miller, W., & Stokes D. (1960). The American voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Chazan, N. (1983). An anatomy of Ghanaian politics: Managing political recession 1969-1982 (First Edition). New York: Routledge.
Coate, S., & Conlin, M. (2004). A group rule-utilitarian approach to voter turnout: Theory and evidence. American Economic Review, 94(5): 1476-1504.
Dahl, R. A. (1971). Polyarchy: participation and opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Dalton, R. J. (2000). Citizen attitudes and political behavior. Comparative Political Studies, 33(6-7): 912-940. doi:10.1177/001041400003300609.
Dalton, R. J. (2016). Party identification and its implications. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.72
Dennis, J. (1970). Support for the institution of elections by the mass public. American Political Science Review, 64(3): 819-835.
Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
Dunn, J. (1975), Politics in Asunafo, in Austin and Luckham (Eds.), politicians and soldiers in Ghana, London: Frank Cass.
Eder, N., Jenny, M., & Müller, W. C. (2017). Manifesto functions: How party candidates view and use their party's central policy document. Electoral Studies, (45): 75-87.
Edlin, A., Gelman, A., & Kaplan, N. (2007). Voting as a rational choice: Why and how people vote to improve the well-being of others. Rationality and Society, 19(3): 293-314.
Erdmann, G. (2007a). Ethnicity, voter alignment and political party affiliation - an African case: Zambia. GIGA Working Paper, No. 45. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.978175
Erdmann, G. (2007b). The cleavage model, ethnicity and voter alignment in Africa: Conceptual and methodological problems revisited. GIGA Working Paper, No. 63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1068633
Evans, J. A. (2004). Voters and voting: An introduction. London: Sage Production Ltd.
Feddersen, T. J. (2004). Rational choice theory and the paradox of not voting. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(1): 99-112.
Franklin, M. N. (2010). Cleavage research: A critical appraisal. West European Politics, 33(3): 648-658. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402381003654650
Franzese, R. J. (2002). Electoral and partisan cycles in economic policies and outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science, 5(1): 369-421.
Frempong, A. K. D. (2012). Electoral politics in Ghana’s fourth republic in the context of post-cold war Africa, Accra: Yamens Press Ltd.
Gabel, M., & Hix, S. (2002). Defining the EU political space: An empirical study of the European election manifestos, 1979-1999. Comparative Political Studies, 35(8): 934–964
Geys, B. (2006). Explaining voter turnout: A review of aggregate-level research. Electoral Studies, 25(4): 637-663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.09.002
Goodin, R. E., & Roberts, K. W. (1975). The ethical voter. American Political Science Review, 69(3): 926-928.
Green, D.P., Palmquist, B. (1994). How stable is party identification? Political Behavior, (16): 437-466. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01498826
Gyimah-Boadi, E. (1994). Ghana's uncertain political opening. Journal of Democracy, 5(2): 75-86.
Gyimah-Boadi, E. (1997). Ghana's encouraging elections: The challenges ahead. Journal of Democracy, 8(2): 78-91.
Hansen, S., Palfrey, T. R., & Rosenthal, H. (1987). The downsian model of electoral participation: Formal theory and empirical analysis of the constituency size effect. Public Choice, 52(1): 15-33.
Heath, A. F., Fisher, S. D., Rosenblatt, G., Sanders, D., & Sobolewska, M. (2013). The political integration of ethnic minorities in Britain. Oxford University Press.
Iversen, T. (1994). Political leadership and representation in west European democracies: A test of three models of voting. American Journal of Political Science, 45-74.
Janda, K., Harmel, R., Edens, C., & Goff, P. (1995). Changes in party identity: Evidence from party manifestos. Party Politics, 1(2): 171-196.
Kelly, B. C. (2010). Sampling and recruitment issues in qualitative drugs research: Reflections on the study of club drug users in metro New York. Substance Use & Misuse, 45(5): 671-683.
Kerr, N., & Lührmann, A. (2017). Public trust in manipulated elections: The role of election administration and media freedom. Electoral Studies, (50): 50-67.
Kiewiet, D. R., & Rivers, D. (1984). A retrospective-on-retrospective voting. Political Behavior, 6(4): 369-393.
Lamare, J. R., & Budd, J. W. (2022). The relative importance of industrial relations ideas in politics: A quantitative analysis of political party manifestos across 54 countries. A Journal of Economy and Society, 61(1): 22-49.
Larcinese, V. (2009). Information acquisition, ideology and turnout: Theory and evidence from Britain. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 21(2): 237-276.
Ledyard, J. O. (1984). The pure theory of large two-candidate elections. Public Choice, 44(1): 7-41. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00124816.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Paldam, M. (2000). Economic voting: An introduction. Electoral Studies, 19(2-3): 113 -121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00042-6
Manin, B., Przeworski, A., & Stokes, S. C. (2012). Democracy, accountability, and representation. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139175104.
Matsusaka, J. G. (1995). Explaining voter turnout patterns: An information theory. Public Choice, (84): 91-117. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01047803
McDonald, M., Mendes, S., & Budge, I. (2004). What are elections for? Conferring the median mandate. British Journal of Political Science, 1(34): 1-26.
McGann, A. (2016). Voting choice and rational choice. Oxford University Press.
https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.79
Merrill, S., Grofman, B., & Brunell, T. L. (2008). Cycles in American national electoral politics, 1854-2006: Statistical evidence and an explanatory model. American Political Science Review, 102(1): 1-17.
Millard, F. (2009). Democratic elections in Poland, 1991-2007 (First Edition), London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203872727
Nielsen, H. J. (2002). Anm. af ole Borre: Issue voting. An introduction. Politica-Tidsskrift for Politisk Videnskab, 34(3): 333-336.
Palfrey, T. R., & Rosenthal, H. (1985). Voter participation and strategic uncertainty. American Political Science Review, 79(1): 62-78.
Posner, D. N. (2005). Institutions and ethnic politics in Africa. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808661
Przeworski, A., Shapiro, I., & Hacker-Cordon, C. (1999). A minimalist conception of democracy. Democracy's Value, 23-55.
Przeworski, A., Stokes, S. C. S., Stokes, S. C., & Manin, B. (Eds.). (1999). Democracy, accountability, and representation (2). Cambridge University Press.
Rabinowitz, G., & Macdonald, S. E. (1989). A directional theory of issue voting. American Political Science Review, 83(1): 93-121.
Reif, K., & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second‐order national elections–a conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8(1): 3-44.
Robinson, O. C. (2014). Sampling in interview-based qualitative research: A theoretical and practical guide. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 11(1): 25-41.
Rose, R., & Mossawir, H. (1967). Voting and elections: A functional analysis. Political Studies, 15(2): 173-201.
Roth, S. K. (1998). Disenfranchised by design: Voting systems and the election process. Information Design Journal, 9(1): 29-38.
Sobolewska, M. (2013). Party strategies and the descriptive representation of ethnic minorities: The 2010 British general election. West European Politics, 36(3): 615-633.
Sobolewska, M., Arzheimer, K., Evans, J., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2016). Race, ethnicity and elections: From recognizable patterns to generalized theories. Electoral Behavior, 220-239.
Trost, J. E. (1986). Statistically non-representative stratified sampling: A sampling technique for qualitative studies. Qualitative Sociology, 9(1): 54-57.
Tufte, E. R. (1978). Political control of the economy. Princeton University Press.
Van de Walle, N. (2003). Presidentialism and clientelism in Africa's emerging party systems. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 41(2): 297-32.
Van Gyampo, R. E., & Debrah, E. (2013). The youth and party manifestos in Ghanaian politics - the case of the 2012 general elections. Journal of African Elections, 12(2): 96-114.